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Slowing Trade Growth To Affect Ports

Slowing Trade Growth to Affect Ports

Slowing Trade Growth to Affect Ports

Related Content: ‘Slowbalisation’ Affects Ports Fitch Ratings-Milan/London-15 September 2022: Global trade and ports volumes are likely to slow down to grow in line with world GDP, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. This cementing of a pre-existing trend is largely due to the growing geopolitical tensions and ongoing multinationals’ strategy to de-risk their supply chains after Covid-19 related disruptions. The impact of slowing trade growth on global ports could restrict world throughput growth at ports to around 1x world GDP, rather than the higher multipliers we saw in the past. We expect to see regional differences in outcome, with manufacturing hubs continuing to register stronger growth. Companies are considering a number of strategies to de-risk their supply chains following the bottlenecks we have seen in the past two years. These include building up inventory, diversifying suppliers to complement those from primary manufacturing hubs and investing in technology to enhance supply-chain planning. In addition, some governments are supporting reshoring for certain limited high-margin or critical products like vaccines or semiconductors. Otherwise, in the short-to- medium term, we do not expect significant shifts to supply chains, as these shifts are costly and difficult to execute. We expect the volume impact on ports from supply-chain disruption and stockpiling to normalise over the medium term. We further expect ports in secondary production hubs (eg. Vietnam, India) or in manufacturing countries closer to US or Europe (Mexico, parts of Europe, north Africa) to benefit in the medium term, though it will be a few years before any such structural shifts are visible in throughput data. This may come at a cost to growth opportunities at certain ports in primary production hubs. Contacts: Shyamali Rajivan Director +44 20 3530 1733 Fitch Ratings 30 North Colonnade London E14 5GN Paolo Alessi Senior Director +39 02 3055 3102 Media Relations: Athos Larkou, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1549, Email: Additional information is available on All Fitch Ratings (Fitch) credit ratings are subject to certain limitations and disclaimers. Please read these limitations and disclaimers by following this link: . In addition, the following details Fitch’s rating definitions for each rating scale and rating categories, including definitions relating to default. Published ratings, criteria, and methodologies are available from this site at all times. Fitch’s code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance, and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the Code of Conduct section of this site. Directors and shareholders’ relevant interests are available at . Fitch may have provided another permissible or ancillary service to the rated entity or its related third parties. Details of permissible or ancillary service(s) for which the lead analyst is based in an ESMA- or FCA-registered Fitch Ratings company (or branch of such a company) can be found on the entity summary page for this issuer on the Fitch Ratings website. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents […]

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Daisie Hobson

Daisie Hobson is a Director at the Reshoring Institute and an engineer with many years of experience in manufacturing and project management.

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