Reshoring is an emerging trend, earnings calls show — A UBS analyst gives his top pick
This earnings season there was a lot of chatter about reshoring — and for UBS, Eaton stands out as the winner of the trend. Government incentives and supply chain security are among the reasons corporate America is jumping on board the booming reshoring trend , which means returning operations to companies’ original country from overseas. Reshoring mentions were up 104% year over year during the latest round of earning reports, Bank of America wrote in a note Monday. Eaton was among those touting its plans. “They have the broadest set of touchpoints throughout the reshoring process,” UBS analyst Chris Snyder said. “These are providing tailwinds from many different approaches.” ETN YTD mountain Eaton’s year-to-date performance The power management company benefits from increased construction of manufacturing facilities and connecting them to the grid, he said. It also makes electrical components for the automated machinery that goes into the facilities, he explained. Eaton, which UBS has also named a top pick for 2023, reported an earnings and revenue beat earlier this month, and said it’s participating in an unprecedented number of what it calls “mega projects.” Since 2021, $600 billion in such projects, each one at least $1 billion in size, have been announced in just the U.S. and Canada — at least three times the historical run rate. “These projects are certainly in various stages of design, planning or construction,” CEO Craig Arnold said on the earnings conference call. “These secular trends are translating into specific projects, and they haven’t slowed down. There’s billions more in the planning stages which will certainly sustain our growth for years to come.” The U.S. reshoring projects announced so far should drive 3% to 6% market growth for the nation’s electrical market over the next five to seven years, essentially doubling its previous growth, Snyder calculated. “The projects coming through are just so significant and the tailwinds are just very durable,” he said. Some of those projects will take longer to construct, hence the five- to seven-year growth timeline. “ETN has said only about 25% of the post 2021 mega-trends have broken ground, which signals the high majority of orders and nearly all of the revenue opportunity from reshoring is still in front of the company,” he said. Snyder’s price target of $205 implies nearly 21% upside from Monday’s close. His other plays on the reshoring theme are Keysight Technologies , which provides electronic design and test solutions, TE Connectivity and Amphenol . The latter two also have exposure to automation and electric vehicles. “A heightened focus on supply chain resiliency & U.S. reshoring is a positive for automation demand as replacing higher cost labor should increase ROI on automation investment,” Snyder wrote in a note last week. That said, since part of the shift towards reshoring came amid supply chain turbulence during Covid, it makes sense that if global geopolitics improve, it may be somewhat of a headwind, he said. Yet it doesn’t dampen his enthusiasm for the trend. “The government policies here in the U.S. are providing support and companies are starting to call that out as being a driver,” Snyder said. Technology, like artificial intelligence, is also helping support the trend, he said. “The momentum will remain firm,” Snyder predicted. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
