Leading economists call for 2% increase in building construction spending in 2024
Photo by Scott Blake on Unsplash Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel . The twice-yearly Consensus Construction report aggregates building construction spending forecasts from nine leading economists: Richard Branch, Dodge Construction Network Scott Hazelton, S&P Global Steven Shields, Moody’s Analytics Brian Strawberry, FMI Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect Anirban Basu, Associated Builders and Contractors Charles Dougherty, Wells Fargo Securities Bernard Markstein, Markstein Advisors Mark Vitner, Piedmont Crescent Capital All nine economists are in agreement on a 2024 spending-growth slowdown. Two economists are calling for a contraction in spending (Wells Fargo, -1.0%; Piedmont Crescent Capital, -4.7%). ABC’s Anirban Basu is the most bullish on 2024, predicting a 7.7% increase in overall building spending. “The first half of this year has seen gains in construction spending on nonresidential buildings approaching 20%. However, this scorching growth rate is expected to moderate a bit moving into the third and fourth quarters,” wrote AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, in the report. “Even with the easing in supply chain issues and the improved pricing of many construction materials and products, elevated interest rates, more restrictive lending on the part of banks, nervousness over the direction of the economy, and construction labor constraints are expected to slow the pace of growth.” Bright spots for the remainder of 2023 and 2024 include: Healthcare, driven by the aging baby boom population Manufacturing/distribution, thanks to the post-Covid reshoring of production resulting from supply chain issues during the pandemic Hotels, with leisure travel returning to normal following the pandemic Education, as school districts and higher education institutions play catch-up on projects in the wake of Covid. “There are emerging concerns that outsourcing the manufacturing of high-tech products leaves our economy and national defense more vulnerable,” Baker wrote. “The $280 billion in funding provided by the 2022 federal CHIPS and Science Act is designed to advance domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States. These funds will boost spending for these facilities for much of the coming decade.” View the full AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel report , including an interactive table with market forecasts from all nine economists. Exurbs and emerging suburbs having fastest population growth, says Cushman & Wakefield Image by Public Co from Pixabay Saint Mary’s College Health Sciences Photo: Roy Blunt 80 M Street SE (80 M), a mass timber additio Reinforced concrete fins provide shade to the 300-meter-tall National Bank of Kuwait headquarters. Photo: Nigel Young/Foster + Partners Multifamily lounge book wall BD+C Giants 400 Rankings, Photo Halkin | Mason Photography, courtesy Ashley McGraw Architects Leading economists call for 2% increase in building construction spending in 2024 Photo by Scott Blake on Unsplash
